1 00:00:03,320 --> 00:00:09,080 At £20, 30, 40, £50 - that's yours, OK? 2 00:00:09,080 --> 00:00:12,279 You thought deciding to watch this programme 3 00:00:12,279 --> 00:00:16,080 was a logical, rational decision made with free will. 4 00:00:17,679 --> 00:00:19,480 This man says you're wrong. 5 00:00:21,599 --> 00:00:26,360 You think you can easily choose the picture you prefer. 6 00:00:26,360 --> 00:00:30,039 These researchers say you almost certainly can't. 7 00:00:30,039 --> 00:00:32,999 I don't know, he looks a little bit like a Hobbit. 8 00:00:32,999 --> 00:00:38,679 You think this is the first time you've seen this TV documentary? 9 00:00:38,679 --> 00:00:42,359 But this man says you might have well have seen it before - 10 00:00:42,359 --> 00:00:46,239 because of your ability to look into the future. 11 00:00:46,239 --> 00:00:48,320 To look into the future. 12 00:00:48,320 --> 00:00:50,320 To look into the future. 13 00:00:53,240 --> 00:00:57,680 Making decisions, even simple ones, is a tricky process 14 00:00:57,680 --> 00:01:00,319 and you're very, very bad at it. 15 00:01:00,319 --> 00:01:02,399 That, and that. 16 00:01:02,399 --> 00:01:08,559 Thank goodness, for this man, who's going to rescue you with maths. 17 00:01:08,559 --> 00:01:11,759 You have almost like a 95% chance with this girl. 18 00:01:11,759 --> 00:01:14,439 It looks like maybe you could buy those shoes. 19 00:01:14,439 --> 00:01:17,559 Really? Would you buy them? That's the right answer. 20 00:01:17,559 --> 00:01:22,040 So, congratulations on finding yourself watching this programme. 21 00:01:22,040 --> 00:01:24,999 It might well be the best decision you've ever made. 22 00:01:24,999 --> 00:01:29,759 ...is greater than one, you'd be better off watching Horizon. 23 00:01:29,759 --> 00:01:32,400 Oh, thanks so much for working that out for me! 24 00:01:47,120 --> 00:01:50,080 We're all faced with thousands of decisions every day 25 00:01:50,080 --> 00:01:56,400 and, according to science, the choices we make are often bad ones. 26 00:01:56,400 --> 00:01:59,120 Most of the time we're behaving in the flow of the moment, 27 00:01:59,120 --> 00:02:04,239 we're faced with this uncertain world and we're doing our best and often we're wrong. 28 00:02:05,840 --> 00:02:10,840 Our grip on reality is not always as tight as we'd like to think. 29 00:02:10,840 --> 00:02:15,159 We think we have a stronger awareness of our surrounding 30 00:02:15,159 --> 00:02:19,440 and our choices and the reasons for our actions than we actually have. 31 00:02:21,240 --> 00:02:22,359 But there is hope. 32 00:02:22,359 --> 00:02:26,640 The same science that identified the problems can also help. 33 00:02:28,440 --> 00:02:30,719 It works, it does. 34 00:02:30,719 --> 00:02:32,280 If I don't use it, 35 00:02:32,280 --> 00:02:34,240 I often make the wrong decision. 36 00:02:36,039 --> 00:02:40,160 In this programme we're going to show you how to be more rational 37 00:02:40,160 --> 00:02:43,280 and deal with some of life's biggest decisions. 38 00:02:52,839 --> 00:03:00,519 These men are computer enthusiasts, engineers and rocket scientists, and they've got a problem. 39 00:03:00,519 --> 00:03:05,440 I feel like a creative person who's been logically trained through my engineering degree. 40 00:03:05,440 --> 00:03:09,279 I'm interested in how things work and taking things apart. 41 00:03:10,320 --> 00:03:15,399 Even with an average IQ of...quite a lot, none of them has a girlfriend. 42 00:03:18,039 --> 00:03:23,559 I'm the president of a LAN gaming group, where a bunch of guys get together and play games. 43 00:03:23,559 --> 00:03:26,199 My favourite ones are strategic-type games. 44 00:03:26,199 --> 00:03:28,440 I like ruling the world. 45 00:03:28,440 --> 00:03:30,040 Those are the fun-type games. 46 00:03:30,040 --> 00:03:34,040 Are there lots of girls that come into your group? No. 47 00:03:35,640 --> 00:03:40,280 The guys have decided to turn their backs on the single life. 48 00:03:40,280 --> 00:03:44,519 The trouble is, they've spent years deciding to play computer games 49 00:03:44,519 --> 00:03:50,439 that deciding how to approach a potential partner is proving...difficult. 50 00:04:01,200 --> 00:04:06,999 Happily, we've found a man who can help, and what's more, he speaks their language. 51 00:04:08,600 --> 00:04:14,200 Mathematician Garth Sundem believes he can solve complex human problems, 52 00:04:14,200 --> 00:04:18,680 like deciding on a suitable girlfriend, using numbers. 53 00:04:21,399 --> 00:04:24,879 Decision-making and mathematics, it's strange, 54 00:04:24,879 --> 00:04:27,600 they share exactly the same language. 55 00:04:27,600 --> 00:04:31,959 You have a problem that you want to solve and you look at the factors 56 00:04:31,959 --> 00:04:36,120 that you are going to weigh against each other to solve this problem. 57 00:04:36,120 --> 00:04:38,319 It's really the same language. 58 00:04:42,680 --> 00:04:46,959 This perfect relationship led Garth to write a book of equations 59 00:04:46,959 --> 00:04:51,320 for every tricky situation life has to offer. 60 00:04:51,320 --> 00:04:55,399 He thinks that if you really want to come to a truly logical conclusion, 61 00:04:55,399 --> 00:04:58,040 you need to weigh up all the factors 62 00:04:58,040 --> 00:05:01,640 and make them interact, using algebra. 63 00:05:01,640 --> 00:05:08,320 My chances of getting a date with someone would depend on factors like how attractive, you know, you are. 64 00:05:08,320 --> 00:05:12,799 How attractive they are, that would be an obvious ratio comparison right there 65 00:05:12,799 --> 00:05:15,320 that would affect your chances of getting a date. 66 00:05:20,760 --> 00:05:23,679 Tonight, Garth is offering his services 67 00:05:23,679 --> 00:05:30,320 to Levi, John, Cal and Chris, who are putting their faith in maths. 68 00:05:30,320 --> 00:05:37,560 The needy nerds are on a mission - to make friends with a lady, a real one, in a bar. 69 00:05:38,919 --> 00:05:40,719 # Ah, chocolate girl 70 00:05:40,719 --> 00:05:42,999 # Well, you're looking like something I want 71 00:05:44,319 --> 00:05:46,160 # Finding out true love is blind... # 72 00:05:46,599 --> 00:05:48,759 OK, so you guys have all been downstairs. 73 00:05:48,759 --> 00:05:53,159 There's someone you're thinking about. We're gonna figure out your chances. 74 00:05:53,159 --> 00:05:55,280 We're gonna see what the maths says. 75 00:05:55,280 --> 00:05:58,400 How witty a conversationalist are you, from one to ten? 76 00:05:58,400 --> 00:06:01,599 I'm fantastically witty. I'd probably give him a ten on the... 77 00:06:01,599 --> 00:06:04,080 Would you give him a ten? OK, we'll give him a ten. 78 00:06:06,040 --> 00:06:09,000 The "Do I stand a chance with her?" equation 79 00:06:09,000 --> 00:06:13,279 is split into sections - social skills like conversation, 80 00:06:13,279 --> 00:06:17,400 levels of previous contact, and, crucially, attractiveness. 81 00:06:19,999 --> 00:06:22,640 How attractive is this guy? Eight. An eight. 82 00:06:22,640 --> 00:06:25,599 We'll give him an eight. He's a cutie. 83 00:06:25,599 --> 00:06:28,319 Now, how attractive is she, on a scale of one to ten? 84 00:06:28,319 --> 00:06:31,440 Seven and a half. Do you want to call that a seven or an eight? 85 00:06:31,440 --> 00:06:33,399 Seven. OK, seven. 86 00:06:35,000 --> 00:06:40,520 The attractiveness ratio is a key factor that drives the whole equation. 87 00:06:40,520 --> 00:06:48,080 As the boy becomes more attractive relative to his love interest, so his overall chances improve. 88 00:06:48,080 --> 00:06:52,760 Here we got 1, 1.4, we're going to pretty much call this 9, 35 - 89 00:06:52,760 --> 00:06:55,399 you have almost a 95% chance with this girl. 90 00:06:55,399 --> 00:06:59,160 What really drove that is the fact that you are actually 91 00:06:59,160 --> 00:07:04,799 more attractive than this girl, you are a very witty conversationalist - you're pretty much like a dream guy. 92 00:07:04,799 --> 00:07:07,399 Does that sound right to you guys? 93 00:07:13,040 --> 00:07:17,679 The remaining guys are also subjected to Garth's geek logic system 94 00:07:17,679 --> 00:07:21,159 and given their personal likelihood of success. 95 00:07:21,159 --> 00:07:24,999 OK, are you ready for the math? No, I don't want math. 96 00:07:24,999 --> 00:07:28,400 You don't want to do the math. No, I can do it on my own! OK. 97 00:07:28,400 --> 00:07:32,960 No math to mess up your Jedi mojo. No. OK, go on totally without. 98 00:07:32,960 --> 00:07:38,000 So we've got, we've got like 95%, we got 43%, we got 41%, and we got 99 00:07:38,000 --> 00:07:41,640 "heck with the per cent, I'm just going to go do it." See how it goes. 100 00:07:56,760 --> 00:08:01,159 Cal, at 95%, shouldn't have to try too hard. 101 00:08:05,199 --> 00:08:10,559 But Cal's dream girl turns out to be 95% certain she's not interested. 102 00:08:13,040 --> 00:08:18,560 According to his 41% score John should be struggling, but he's not. 103 00:08:21,960 --> 00:08:26,000 43% Chris tries his hand at brutal honesty... 104 00:08:26,000 --> 00:08:29,759 I'm double major, computer science and computer engineering. Oh, wow! 105 00:08:29,759 --> 00:08:32,120 Yeah, kind of a nerdy guy. 106 00:08:32,120 --> 00:08:35,919 Soon discovering that it works a lot better than playing it cool. 107 00:08:38,840 --> 00:08:42,440 In no time at all, the phone number's in the bag. 108 00:08:42,440 --> 00:08:43,919 5046. 109 00:08:46,359 --> 00:08:49,439 This experiment was meant to see if the maths could predict 110 00:08:49,439 --> 00:08:54,279 our volunteers' success, but we've discovered something more interesting. 111 00:08:54,279 --> 00:08:58,400 Simply analysing the decision beforehand seems to have given 112 00:08:58,400 --> 00:09:02,480 them the confidence of seasoned Casanovas, whatever their score. 113 00:09:02,480 --> 00:09:05,439 I'll give you a call. Well, thanks once again. 114 00:09:07,040 --> 00:09:11,199 In no time at all, everybody's taking phone numbers... 115 00:09:11,199 --> 00:09:17,120 Everybody, that is, except Levi, who rejected Garth's magic numbers. 116 00:09:17,120 --> 00:09:22,959 He's still got way too much to think about, and fails to perform...as usual. 117 00:09:24,920 --> 00:09:30,560 Good evening, success all around, we got a yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, right? 118 00:09:30,560 --> 00:09:33,639 No. No? What happened? 119 00:09:33,639 --> 00:09:38,919 I should have followed the math. You should have followed the math! Everybody but the no-math guy! 120 00:09:38,919 --> 00:09:41,120 Next time. Next time. 121 00:09:45,439 --> 00:09:49,560 So here in a nutshell is your guide to logical decision-making. 122 00:09:49,560 --> 00:09:53,319 Identify all the factors that affect the decision. 123 00:09:53,319 --> 00:09:56,359 Write them down. 124 00:09:56,359 --> 00:09:59,159 Even weight them using mathematics. 125 00:09:59,159 --> 00:10:05,319 And remember, freeing your mind with maths could help you become a truly rational person. 126 00:10:12,399 --> 00:10:15,480 But of course it's not quite that simple. 127 00:10:15,480 --> 00:10:19,119 Problem is that you routinely come to quite different conclusions 128 00:10:19,119 --> 00:10:24,840 about the same problem depending on how you look at it, which isn't very rational at all. 129 00:10:32,120 --> 00:10:34,479 Pete Firmin is a magician. 130 00:10:42,200 --> 00:10:46,760 He can confuse, misdirect and bamboozle. 131 00:10:46,760 --> 00:10:50,000 So 51 are face up, only one is face down, what was it the seven of? 132 00:10:50,000 --> 00:10:52,799 Seven of hearts. Seven of hearts. 133 00:10:52,799 --> 00:10:54,999 Take it out, turn it face up, 134 00:10:54,999 --> 00:10:57,599 the seven of hearts. 135 00:10:57,599 --> 00:11:00,359 Thanks guys, cheers. 136 00:11:00,359 --> 00:11:06,000 Today, Pete's in London's Spitalfields Market working for us, 137 00:11:06,000 --> 00:11:09,159 and he wants to give away our money. 138 00:11:09,159 --> 00:11:13,679 Inside my pocket I've got 20 quid, 139 00:11:13,679 --> 00:11:18,320 £20, 30, 40, £50 - feel it, touch it. 140 00:11:18,320 --> 00:11:23,000 You can walk away with that or if you want to, we could have a little game of roulette, 141 00:11:23,000 --> 00:11:29,279 50-50 odds, and you could up it to £50, but if you lose you get nothing, I get the twenty back. 142 00:11:29,279 --> 00:11:33,279 The decision to take the 20 or gamble is theirs alone - 143 00:11:33,279 --> 00:11:37,479 except that what they don't know is that Pete is manipulating them. 144 00:11:37,479 --> 00:11:39,839 Even odds. It's a trick. No, no, it's not a trick. 145 00:11:39,839 --> 00:11:45,159 If you want to, you can walk away... The way he presents the proposition is subtly different. 146 00:11:45,159 --> 00:11:47,280 I'm going to give you twenty quid. 147 00:11:47,280 --> 00:11:51,800 In the first case, the punter is presented with a freebie, a nice surprise. 148 00:11:51,800 --> 00:11:55,239 This is called a gain scenario. 149 00:11:55,239 --> 00:11:58,880 Here's 20 quid, you take that. 150 00:11:58,880 --> 00:12:01,280 You can take that, you can walk away, it's yours. 151 00:12:01,280 --> 00:12:07,360 Go and buy lunch, whatever you want to do, or you can gamble and maybe win 50. What do you want to do? 152 00:12:07,360 --> 00:12:10,799 OK - I've got ten, 20, 30. 153 00:12:10,799 --> 00:12:15,519 In the second case, the punter gets an even nicer surprise. 154 00:12:15,519 --> 00:12:18,000 Real money here. I've got 50 quid, all right? 155 00:12:18,000 --> 00:12:23,280 That's 10, 20, 30, 40, £50 - that's yours, OK? 156 00:12:23,280 --> 00:12:28,880 But is then almost immediately presented with what is called a loss scenario. 157 00:12:28,880 --> 00:12:31,119 I'm going to take 30 of it back. 158 00:12:31,119 --> 00:12:35,800 If you want to win this you're going to have gamble. What do you want to do? 159 00:12:35,800 --> 00:12:40,040 The outcome to both scenarios is identical - 160 00:12:40,040 --> 00:12:42,600 keep 20 or gamble for 50. 161 00:12:42,600 --> 00:12:46,840 We want to see if the decision to gamble can be affected 162 00:12:46,840 --> 00:12:49,599 by the way the proposition is made. 163 00:12:49,599 --> 00:12:53,120 I'll gamble. You'll gamble. I'll gamble. OK. 164 00:12:53,120 --> 00:12:57,880 In our rigorously scientific study in Spitalfields Market, 165 00:12:57,880 --> 00:13:04,480 those who felt they were losing out were more likely to gamble to win the money back. 166 00:13:04,480 --> 00:13:06,759 Red does win £50. Congratulations. 167 00:13:06,759 --> 00:13:11,360 As opposed to those punters who were presented with a gain... 168 00:13:11,360 --> 00:13:16,319 Here's 20 quid, all right? ..who decided to stick with their unexpected good fortune. 169 00:13:16,319 --> 00:13:19,520 I'm going to take the money. You're going to take the money? 170 00:13:19,520 --> 00:13:22,400 Well done! Fair enough, sir, fair enough. 171 00:13:22,400 --> 00:13:25,919 Without realising it, our volunteers had decided on risk... 172 00:13:25,919 --> 00:13:28,719 Oh, I'm sorry. 173 00:13:28,719 --> 00:13:31,520 It's a red so I keep the money. .. Or safety. 174 00:13:31,520 --> 00:13:35,680 I'm going to walk away. Fair enough, have it with my compliments. 175 00:13:35,680 --> 00:13:39,160 Simply because of perception of loss or gain. 176 00:13:39,160 --> 00:13:43,199 OK, Jessica, now I tell you the instruction for playing this game. 177 00:13:43,199 --> 00:13:46,880 So you are going to enter in that scanner. You have two options. 178 00:13:46,880 --> 00:13:51,159 One option you can keep for sure £30. That is a safe option. 179 00:13:51,159 --> 00:13:57,960 Or you can feel, be more risky and play a gamble in which you can win all £50 or lose all of them. OK? 180 00:13:57,960 --> 00:14:03,480 Benedetto De Martino is performing the same experiment that we tried out at Spitalfields Market. 181 00:14:05,479 --> 00:14:11,319 By performing the gambling experiment in an FMRI scanner Benedetto is hoping to see 182 00:14:11,319 --> 00:14:16,280 what is going on in the brain of the person making decisions in the face of loss or gain. 183 00:14:19,239 --> 00:14:22,640 OK, Jessica, we are starting now the experiment. 184 00:14:22,640 --> 00:14:26,399 Good luck, try to make as much money as you can. 185 00:14:26,399 --> 00:14:28,239 Thanks. 186 00:14:35,879 --> 00:14:40,119 Each new loss or gain scenario is called a frame. 187 00:14:40,119 --> 00:14:45,119 Benedetto's experiment has hundreds of variations on the theme - 188 00:14:45,119 --> 00:14:49,880 pairs of identical choices presented in subtly different ways. 189 00:14:53,320 --> 00:14:57,479 Across the board, just as in the street experiment, the loss frames 190 00:14:57,479 --> 00:15:03,039 produced more inclination to gamble than the gain frames. 191 00:15:06,720 --> 00:15:12,080 This so-called framing effect was first observed 30 years ago. 192 00:15:12,080 --> 00:15:17,039 Psychologists discovered that if a decision is taken to avoid a loss 193 00:15:17,039 --> 00:15:22,520 it will be a bolder, more aggressive decision than one taken to merely achieve a gain. 194 00:15:26,640 --> 00:15:32,839 The idea is called Prospect Theory and explains an awful lot of apparently irrational decisions. 195 00:15:38,840 --> 00:15:43,680 New York taxi drivers tend to determine their hours of work by their earnings. 196 00:15:43,680 --> 00:15:46,920 When they reach their target, they go home. 197 00:15:50,320 --> 00:15:54,759 Though this seems sensible, it does reveal a lapse in rational thought. 198 00:15:56,999 --> 00:16:01,719 Because on slow days, the taxi driver, motivated by the loss 199 00:16:01,719 --> 00:16:06,559 of not reaching the target, will work for more hours than on a fast day, 200 00:16:06,559 --> 00:16:12,240 where the gain of greater earnings once the target has been quickly reached 201 00:16:12,240 --> 00:16:16,000 does not produce the desire to continue working. 202 00:16:16,000 --> 00:16:20,720 Of course it would be more rational to work longer on a fast day 203 00:16:20,720 --> 00:16:23,319 and knock off early on a slow day, 204 00:16:23,319 --> 00:16:25,680 but this is nothing to do with logic. 205 00:16:29,120 --> 00:16:32,999 Perception of loss or gain drives human decision-making 206 00:16:32,999 --> 00:16:36,839 in every aspect of existence, from choosing where to live... 207 00:16:39,879 --> 00:16:41,639 ..to deciding to go to war. 208 00:16:47,559 --> 00:16:54,439 Prospect Theory observes that we are not always rational about decisions, 209 00:16:54,439 --> 00:16:59,679 but it was not until Benedetto scanned his gamblers that anyone could understand why. 210 00:17:04,839 --> 00:17:08,479 What we found, and what was already described 30 years ago 211 00:17:08,479 --> 00:17:12,199 by Prospect Theory, is the fact that people are not completely rational 212 00:17:12,199 --> 00:17:17,279 and also the fact that the emotion, they play a big role in the decision. 213 00:17:18,959 --> 00:17:22,640 What Benedetto discovered was that in every case 214 00:17:22,640 --> 00:17:28,400 it was the emotional centre of the brain, the amygdala, which lit up. 215 00:17:31,600 --> 00:17:36,600 On contrary of what is the common sense that people that are very rational, 216 00:17:36,600 --> 00:17:40,319 they don't have emotion at all, we found that every one of us 217 00:17:40,319 --> 00:17:44,199 processes emotion but there are some people can kind of control this 218 00:17:44,199 --> 00:17:47,999 initial emotional response that every one of us has. 219 00:17:50,079 --> 00:17:53,719 But Benedetto discovered something more. 220 00:17:53,719 --> 00:17:56,720 He noticed that there was a part of the frontal lobe 221 00:17:56,720 --> 00:18:00,560 that was also active during the decision-making task, 222 00:18:00,560 --> 00:18:06,080 but the amount of activity varied dramatically between the volunteers. 223 00:18:06,080 --> 00:18:12,759 And what we think this area was doing was practically controlling the emotional response. 224 00:18:12,759 --> 00:18:18,840 So everyone has an initial emotional response, but there are people that can control these emotional responses 225 00:18:18,840 --> 00:18:22,920 better with their frontal lobe, and they can just practically approximate 226 00:18:22,920 --> 00:18:26,119 a more rational behaviour, a more consistent behaviour. 227 00:18:27,720 --> 00:18:33,840 The reason that we are able to make rational decisions at all is because of our magnificent frontal lobes. 228 00:18:33,840 --> 00:18:38,080 Ours are almost five times bigger than our closest relatives'. 229 00:18:38,080 --> 00:18:41,840 What's more our unique mix of brain cell types means that our 230 00:18:41,840 --> 00:18:45,760 frontal lobes can out-decide even the greatest great ape. 231 00:18:47,919 --> 00:18:52,920 It's only when they stop working properly that we truly appreciate 232 00:18:52,920 --> 00:18:56,600 how important our frontal lobes are to decision-making. 233 00:19:03,719 --> 00:19:07,479 After 200 yards, turn right. 234 00:19:09,119 --> 00:19:14,360 Shana Sewell can't make the kind of spontaneous decisions that most of us take for granted. 235 00:19:14,360 --> 00:19:18,080 Turn left. 236 00:19:18,080 --> 00:19:23,559 Since a brain haemorrhage damaged her left frontal lobe in 2003, 237 00:19:23,559 --> 00:19:26,880 even a trip to the supermarket is a nightmare. 238 00:19:26,880 --> 00:19:30,120 Turn around when possible. Right you are. 239 00:19:37,639 --> 00:19:45,159 Shana's brain injury reveals that making even a simple decision is in fact complex. 240 00:19:45,159 --> 00:19:51,199 For Shana, every trivial choice must be anticipated, analysed and planned. 241 00:19:51,199 --> 00:19:54,319 Tomatoes and cucumber. 242 00:19:54,319 --> 00:19:57,439 Spontaneity is a thing of the past. 243 00:19:57,439 --> 00:20:02,400 The process I have to go through when I'm food shopping is I start 244 00:20:02,400 --> 00:20:06,680 off with my planning so I feel that I've got every eventuality covered. 245 00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:08,600 Yeah, that one, please. 246 00:20:08,600 --> 00:20:14,880 'I know exactly what I'm getting, what type of thing I'm getting.' Chocolate biscuits! 247 00:20:14,880 --> 00:20:16,759 It's not on the list. 248 00:20:16,759 --> 00:20:20,400 Difficulties arise when there's different offers on. 249 00:20:20,400 --> 00:20:26,960 Is it more economical to buy a whole chicken or buy chicken fillets? 250 00:20:26,960 --> 00:20:30,759 I find it stressful. No, we don't do, no. 251 00:20:30,759 --> 00:20:32,919 I don't like chicken! 252 00:20:32,919 --> 00:20:35,400 I get confused. 253 00:20:35,400 --> 00:20:40,119 But it's going to take me longer to...cook a whole chicken. 254 00:20:40,119 --> 00:20:42,680 Maybe it won't, I don't know. 255 00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:46,760 Anything that is out of routine causes me problems. 256 00:20:46,760 --> 00:20:51,000 Corbin, what do we have when mummy makes, cooks chicken? 257 00:20:51,000 --> 00:20:57,479 The problem is so severe that every aisle presents the challenge of a fresh decision. 258 00:20:57,479 --> 00:21:01,840 Imagine having to weigh up all the pros and cons for types of biscuits. 259 00:21:01,840 --> 00:21:03,719 I'd rather we didn't. Why? 260 00:21:03,719 --> 00:21:05,200 Because... 261 00:21:07,280 --> 00:21:09,800 Or bread. Or grapes. 262 00:21:09,800 --> 00:21:12,560 No, I don't think they are on the list. 263 00:21:12,560 --> 00:21:19,200 Or crisps or mushrooms, or soap or soup, or toothpaste or anything. 264 00:21:22,560 --> 00:21:26,280 What yoghurts do you want? 265 00:21:29,679 --> 00:21:33,039 Shana has undergone six months of intensive rehabilitation 266 00:21:33,039 --> 00:21:36,679 where she has been taught to externalise her decision-making. 267 00:21:36,679 --> 00:21:39,759 I've got the praise if she doesn't revise. Now I... 268 00:21:39,759 --> 00:21:43,839 ..By putting all the options down on paper. 269 00:21:43,839 --> 00:21:46,839 The cons. 270 00:21:46,839 --> 00:21:49,839 She might rebel, 271 00:21:49,839 --> 00:21:54,239 not only as in having a go at me but I mean rebel as in "Oh, I'm not doing it." 272 00:21:54,239 --> 00:21:58,479 The paper strategy works well for Shana, but it's one that requires 273 00:21:58,479 --> 00:22:00,640 her total concentration. 274 00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:04,039 PHONE BEEPS Sorry, I'm beeping. 275 00:22:05,679 --> 00:22:11,360 A reminder to take her tablets in the middle of the decision task proves to be disastrous. 276 00:22:11,360 --> 00:22:15,600 Time to take your tablet? Yeah but it beeps early and... 277 00:22:15,600 --> 00:22:18,639 Is that what you're due to take now? Yeah. Do you need a glass of water? 278 00:22:21,360 --> 00:22:23,840 Yeah, please. 279 00:22:23,840 --> 00:22:25,919 No. Um... 280 00:22:25,919 --> 00:22:27,399 I can take it... 281 00:22:31,079 --> 00:22:36,519 Oh, I don't know my main goal now, you see, this is not fair. 282 00:22:36,519 --> 00:22:38,040 I should have reset it. 283 00:22:40,359 --> 00:22:43,520 I know! I'll leave them there to remind me 284 00:22:43,520 --> 00:22:45,280 to take them after... 285 00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:48,560 When we've finished the session and I've finished showing you... 286 00:22:48,560 --> 00:22:52,519 When I've made my decision. Back to Chloe's revision. 287 00:22:52,519 --> 00:22:54,599 Yeah to miss an opportunity... 288 00:22:54,599 --> 00:22:58,160 Shana will always have problems with spontaneous decision-making 289 00:22:58,160 --> 00:23:01,839 but the systematic approach means she can now get on with her life 290 00:23:01,839 --> 00:23:05,479 even though she sometimes finds it frustrating. 291 00:23:05,479 --> 00:23:10,279 It takes up a lot of time, but it works. 292 00:23:10,279 --> 00:23:14,799 It does - if I don't use it, I quite often make the wrong decision. 293 00:23:14,799 --> 00:23:16,920 You're building... 294 00:23:16,920 --> 00:23:20,240 A case. A case for which option? 295 00:23:20,240 --> 00:23:23,960 For option two? Revising, yeah. 296 00:23:23,960 --> 00:23:27,720 Shall we go and take, find a glass of water for your tablet? 297 00:23:27,720 --> 00:23:30,960 Good idea. Thank you. All right, thanks very much. 298 00:23:35,239 --> 00:23:38,360 But there's another problem. 299 00:23:38,360 --> 00:23:44,479 These men have discovered that sometimes your brain appears to conspire against you, 300 00:23:44,479 --> 00:23:46,760 and no amount of scribbling can solve that. 301 00:23:58,160 --> 00:24:01,839 Petter Johansson is forcing people to make decisions. 302 00:24:04,159 --> 00:24:06,159 This one. 303 00:24:06,159 --> 00:24:13,159 It's a simple enough task for most people, and in fact it isn't the real point of the experiment. 304 00:24:17,120 --> 00:24:20,240 Why did you prefer that one? 305 00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:23,039 Higher cheekbones, 306 00:24:23,039 --> 00:24:25,400 slightly better hair. 307 00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:27,639 Not much between them. 308 00:24:29,720 --> 00:24:35,719 Petter Johansson and Lars Hall have devised an experiment which calls into question 309 00:24:35,719 --> 00:24:40,599 many of our assumptions about how we make most of our everyday decisions. 310 00:24:40,599 --> 00:24:45,720 We're interested to see what kind of detail, 311 00:24:45,720 --> 00:24:51,480 the representations behind peoples' decisions and what kind of insight they have about those decisions. 312 00:24:51,480 --> 00:24:53,799 Why did you choose this one? 313 00:24:53,799 --> 00:24:57,440 It looks like it would be someone with a very interesting personality. 314 00:25:01,319 --> 00:25:07,520 This is all quite boring - until you look at the experiment from a different perspective. 315 00:25:07,520 --> 00:25:10,959 We added a twist, a card trick, 316 00:25:10,959 --> 00:25:14,599 so that sometimes they choose one face but end up with the other one. 317 00:25:14,599 --> 00:25:17,720 Watch carefully. 318 00:25:17,720 --> 00:25:21,080 The volunteer chooses the card on the left. 319 00:25:21,080 --> 00:25:23,600 This one. But Petter swaps the card, and 320 00:25:23,600 --> 00:25:29,319 presents the photo that was seen on the right and was actually rejected. 321 00:25:29,319 --> 00:25:32,919 It is a card trick, but it's a cheap card trick 322 00:25:32,919 --> 00:25:37,839 based on something that the magicians call black on black. 323 00:25:37,839 --> 00:25:42,479 So for each card there is a hidden card behind it which is actually the opposite one. 324 00:25:42,479 --> 00:25:48,160 Where we slide the other card over, the black card is hidden and then 325 00:25:48,160 --> 00:25:53,440 Petter just uses his arm to...slide it down into his lap. 326 00:25:54,999 --> 00:25:57,759 I mean, it's two parts that's interesting here. 327 00:25:57,759 --> 00:26:01,799 First the fact that they don't notice when you switch the pictures. 328 00:26:01,799 --> 00:26:05,319 It's interesting in itself and it's quite, quite surprising. 329 00:26:05,319 --> 00:26:11,680 And the second part is of course the verbal reports to give that actually motivate choices they didn't make. 330 00:26:13,560 --> 00:26:19,119 80% of the people we tested had absolutely no idea that a switch had been made. 331 00:26:19,119 --> 00:26:23,160 Again this one just struck me, interesting shot. 332 00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:28,799 Since I'm a photographer, I like the way that it's lit and looks. It's a puzzling phenomenon. 333 00:26:28,799 --> 00:26:32,919 This one. Lars and Petter think that it can only be understood 334 00:26:32,919 --> 00:26:38,000 by looking at our fundamental relationship with our surroundings. 335 00:26:38,000 --> 00:26:39,759 We rely upon the world. 336 00:26:39,759 --> 00:26:43,719 The world is dependable, so if you reach for your car keys 337 00:26:43,719 --> 00:26:46,680 you don't end up with the armadillo in your lap 338 00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:49,880 or something like that. The one on the left. 339 00:26:52,199 --> 00:26:56,600 It might also be that we simply can't countenance our decisions being wrong. 340 00:26:56,600 --> 00:27:01,279 Once we've made up our minds there's far too much invested to back pedal. 341 00:27:03,039 --> 00:27:08,760 We simply post-rationalise and pretend that it was a great choice all along. 342 00:27:08,760 --> 00:27:12,320 He just seemed friendlier. Friendlier? Yeah. 343 00:27:15,560 --> 00:27:20,519 If you want to keep irrational decision-making at bay, here's what to do. 344 00:27:20,519 --> 00:27:25,159 Watch out for loss or gain situations. 345 00:27:25,159 --> 00:27:28,440 Realise that emotions are an essential part of all decisions, 346 00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:31,920 but try not to let them get the upper hand. 347 00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:39,720 Even if you can't face writing an equation, at least write down your options and canvass opinion. 348 00:27:41,319 --> 00:27:46,640 And remember your nasty tendency to dress up bad decisions as great ones. 349 00:27:54,360 --> 00:27:59,640 Garth Sundem has taken all these irrational factors on board in his quest for the perfect equation. 350 00:28:08,479 --> 00:28:12,279 He's hoping to discover if his new improved formulae 351 00:28:12,279 --> 00:28:16,519 can help with one of the most emotional of all human decisions. 352 00:28:20,760 --> 00:28:23,640 These are my favourite so far. OK, would you like some help deciding? 353 00:28:23,640 --> 00:28:25,919 Well, what is this? 354 00:28:25,919 --> 00:28:29,120 OK I'm coming over here, so here's what we're going to do. 355 00:28:29,120 --> 00:28:32,679 How attractive would you consider yourself right now? 356 00:28:34,279 --> 00:28:36,759 I'll give myself a five. 357 00:28:36,759 --> 00:28:38,719 Solid ten. Solid ten! Then that's like... 358 00:28:38,719 --> 00:28:41,319 In this context, sort of a Sarah Jessica Parker. 359 00:28:43,280 --> 00:28:48,560 In this equation, Garth covers all the logical considerations like cost 360 00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:50,919 and comfort, but straight away 361 00:28:50,919 --> 00:28:56,679 he's also dealt with what the shoes will do emotionally for the purchaser. 362 00:28:56,679 --> 00:28:59,919 I would be a seven with these shoes. So it changes by at least two? 363 00:28:59,919 --> 00:29:03,920 Yeah. Cool. Say a seven. OK, bump you up a bunch on that scale. 364 00:29:03,920 --> 00:29:08,559 And there's even an interesting take on Prospect Theory. 365 00:29:08,559 --> 00:29:11,559 Are you seeing anybody right now? 366 00:29:11,559 --> 00:29:13,280 No. Are you, you're... 367 00:29:13,280 --> 00:29:16,839 Are you not married? I am not married. I'm married. Married, OK. 368 00:29:16,839 --> 00:29:18,840 We're dating. Yes, we are. 369 00:29:18,840 --> 00:29:22,240 Living together? No. OK. 370 00:29:22,240 --> 00:29:25,400 As your relationship status heads towards marriage, 371 00:29:25,400 --> 00:29:30,880 the effect of increased shoe-based attractiveness ebbs away. 372 00:29:30,880 --> 00:29:37,279 The gain of a stable relationship means that you no longer need to aggressively pursue risky footwear. 373 00:29:37,279 --> 00:29:43,760 Seven up front, we've got five over fifteen here which is a little less than a half. 374 00:29:43,760 --> 00:29:49,520 Square root of that is going to be, I don't know what, like 26ish. I'm glad you understand this, OK. 375 00:29:49,520 --> 00:29:52,760 It is four over ten and deserving it at a five... 376 00:29:52,760 --> 00:29:55,719 Unfortunately it's going to come out a bit below one 377 00:29:55,719 --> 00:29:57,879 so not the day for those specific shoes. 378 00:29:57,879 --> 00:30:03,079 It's going to turn out greater than one and it looks like maybe you could buy those shoes. Really? 379 00:30:03,079 --> 00:30:07,800 Does that sound good, would you buy them? That's the right answer. Is that the right answer? Sure. 380 00:30:07,800 --> 00:30:12,000 Really? Absolutely. Those are them. 381 00:30:13,600 --> 00:30:17,599 If the math had come out differently would it have changed your mind? 382 00:30:17,599 --> 00:30:20,240 No, it's just numbers. 383 00:30:20,240 --> 00:30:24,039 I think the equation was probably a little female-centric. 384 00:30:24,039 --> 00:30:27,759 A lot of the variables in the equation didn't relate to men. 385 00:30:27,759 --> 00:30:31,239 I think for men it's probably more of a straightforward process. 386 00:30:33,399 --> 00:30:36,320 So your total is $617.74. 387 00:30:36,320 --> 00:30:40,920 Well, the equation said I shouldn't buy the shoes, 388 00:30:40,920 --> 00:30:46,599 which made the decision a little easier because they were a little out of my price range. 389 00:30:46,599 --> 00:30:53,279 I did not buy the green shoes even though I really, really liked them. 390 00:30:53,279 --> 00:30:57,039 So you went against the recommendation of the maths? 391 00:30:57,039 --> 00:31:02,480 I went against the recommendation of the maths but I have my own decision-making system in place - 392 00:31:02,480 --> 00:31:07,640 I'm going to think about it and if I'm still pining for them then I'll come back and get them. 393 00:31:12,799 --> 00:31:16,080 So far, so good - decision-making sorted, 394 00:31:16,080 --> 00:31:19,800 rational strategies put in place and emotions in check. 395 00:31:21,600 --> 00:31:25,400 But be warned, it gets worse. 396 00:31:25,400 --> 00:31:29,240 Because decision-making has another, darker element. 397 00:31:43,320 --> 00:31:49,200 In 1996, Professor John Bargh shocked and outraged his fellow psychologists 398 00:31:49,200 --> 00:31:53,040 by publishing studies which controversially showed 399 00:31:53,040 --> 00:31:57,240 that our decisions can be subliminally manipulated. 400 00:31:57,240 --> 00:32:02,080 I had fruit thrown at me at talks when I gave these results in the '90s 401 00:32:02,080 --> 00:32:05,199 and they were joking, but I had apples and oranges lobbed at me 402 00:32:05,199 --> 00:32:07,880 because they thought, "You're going too far." 403 00:32:07,880 --> 00:32:11,919 I've ceased being surprised at the results of these studies 404 00:32:11,919 --> 00:32:17,079 but only because of all the long experience that these things keep working. 405 00:32:17,079 --> 00:32:22,839 The subliminal effect that rattled so many cages is called priming. 406 00:32:24,999 --> 00:32:29,520 You're watching television or watching a movie or reading a book 407 00:32:29,520 --> 00:32:34,880 and what's happening in the movie or TV could be someone doing something very brave. 408 00:32:41,279 --> 00:32:45,000 And that just by itself activates ideas and the concept of bravery, 409 00:32:45,000 --> 00:32:49,839 and you might be more likely to see another person as a brave person 410 00:32:49,839 --> 00:32:54,400 or another person as a kind person or an intelligent person more than usual, 411 00:32:54,400 --> 00:32:58,160 and more than you would have, had the prior event not happened. 412 00:32:58,160 --> 00:32:59,839 That's the nature of priming. 413 00:33:04,960 --> 00:33:11,239 Images and even words slipping thoughts and feelings into our subconscious is one thing, 414 00:33:11,239 --> 00:33:17,000 but what is more worrying is how those thoughts and feelings can then change our behaviour. 415 00:33:21,360 --> 00:33:26,199 Today, one of John Bargh's PhD students is running an experiment 416 00:33:26,199 --> 00:33:29,279 to investigate the priming effects of temperature. 417 00:33:31,399 --> 00:33:38,120 What we do in our experiment, we very briefly expose people to a warm or cold substance. 418 00:33:38,120 --> 00:33:40,200 And what we expect to happen 419 00:33:40,200 --> 00:33:45,200 is that simple experience with a warm substance or a cold substance 420 00:33:45,200 --> 00:33:48,280 will prime people to sort of activate 421 00:33:48,280 --> 00:33:53,520 these feelings of warmth and comfort and the things that we've learnt about since we were very young. 422 00:33:56,439 --> 00:33:59,000 'And when we have those things in mind, 423 00:33:59,000 --> 00:34:05,159 'those things we know will colour people's judgements and decisions and their behaviours as well.' 424 00:34:05,159 --> 00:34:10,479 Volunteers for the experiment are asked to hold a warm cup of coffee as they are met by Lawrence. 425 00:34:10,479 --> 00:34:14,280 They have been primed with heat. 426 00:34:15,920 --> 00:34:21,000 The purpose of the experiment is to record participants' judgments about Lawrence's colleague Randy. 427 00:34:21,000 --> 00:34:22,920 How was your break? 428 00:34:22,920 --> 00:34:24,679 It was awesome. 429 00:34:24,679 --> 00:34:29,040 It was good until I got stranded in Florida. What happened? Because of a snowstorm. 430 00:34:29,040 --> 00:34:32,439 In New York on Friday so I got stranded. 431 00:34:32,439 --> 00:34:37,359 The theory is that the hot drink will somehow elicit positive feelings towards Randy 432 00:34:37,359 --> 00:34:41,240 even several minutes after experiencing the warmth of the cup. 433 00:34:41,240 --> 00:34:43,800 And here's the killer question - 434 00:34:43,800 --> 00:34:45,999 would you give Randy a permanent job? 435 00:34:45,999 --> 00:34:51,359 Based on your brief interaction with Randy, would you hire him as project manager? 436 00:34:51,359 --> 00:34:54,800 He seemed like a genuinely friendly guy. 437 00:34:54,800 --> 00:34:56,359 So, yeah, I would say so. 438 00:34:56,359 --> 00:34:58,759 Yeah, why not? 439 00:34:58,759 --> 00:35:01,759 Sure. Yes. Yes. 440 00:35:03,399 --> 00:35:12,759 Saying warm and friendly things about a stranger might just be the normal polite response. 441 00:35:12,759 --> 00:35:15,120 Will you hold this for a sec? Sure. 442 00:35:15,120 --> 00:35:16,839 Can you hold this for a second? Sure. 443 00:35:16,839 --> 00:35:18,960 Can you hold this for a second? 444 00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:23,720 Except for the temperature of the drink, identical conditions. The same conversation with Randy. 445 00:35:23,720 --> 00:35:25,319 How was your break? 446 00:35:25,319 --> 00:35:27,120 It was good. 447 00:35:27,120 --> 00:35:30,200 Are you glad to be back? Not really. 448 00:35:30,200 --> 00:35:34,559 And six minutes later, the same questions from Lawrence. 449 00:35:34,559 --> 00:35:37,119 Based on your brief interaction with him, 450 00:35:37,119 --> 00:35:41,160 would you recommend him or would you hire Randy as project manager? 451 00:35:41,160 --> 00:35:44,199 Uh... As a leader? 452 00:35:44,199 --> 00:35:48,560 I'm not sure. Based on the brief interaction...no. 453 00:35:48,560 --> 00:35:52,119 Maybe not from the impression that I got. 454 00:35:53,840 --> 00:35:56,880 The experiment shows, remarkably, 455 00:35:56,880 --> 00:36:02,679 that a brief encounter with a beverage could see you either hired or fired. 456 00:36:02,679 --> 00:36:07,559 It's a powerful effect, and one that might have worrying applications. 457 00:36:10,200 --> 00:36:12,560 In the case of say, 458 00:36:12,560 --> 00:36:18,279 consumer products, feeling warm about a product presumably would make you more likely to buy it. 459 00:36:18,279 --> 00:36:20,559 Feeling warm about a spokesperson may make you 460 00:36:20,559 --> 00:36:23,640 be more likely to listen to that person and trust their judgment. 461 00:36:23,640 --> 00:36:26,760 So beware politicians handing you cups of coffee, right? 462 00:36:26,760 --> 00:36:28,359 Essentially yes. 463 00:36:28,359 --> 00:36:32,199 People say, "How can you get these effects with such a small manipulation 464 00:36:32,199 --> 00:36:34,640 "and moving people's behaviour?" 465 00:36:34,640 --> 00:36:39,199 And we also get a little defensive when we hear that and, "I don't know! 466 00:36:39,199 --> 00:36:41,600 "It just keeps working!" 467 00:36:41,600 --> 00:36:45,039 We do these things and they work and that's... "Sorry, but they do," 468 00:36:45,039 --> 00:36:49,719 and now our job is to understand and try to explain to people why that is. 469 00:36:49,719 --> 00:36:54,639 Why the human mind is constructed in the way that you can get these effects at all. 470 00:36:54,639 --> 00:36:58,640 If you think that priming is a little hard to take, meet a man 471 00:36:58,640 --> 00:37:03,120 who believes that our decisions are affected by what we don't yet know. 472 00:37:14,240 --> 00:37:19,239 Dean Radin is one of the world's leading researchers into psychic phenomena. 473 00:37:21,360 --> 00:37:24,639 There is a certain taboo about this topic. 474 00:37:24,639 --> 00:37:31,440 When science evolved away from the paranormal and the supernatural, there has been certain pieces 475 00:37:31,440 --> 00:37:36,720 of our ancient heritage that were left aside. 476 00:37:36,720 --> 00:37:40,560 Telepathy and clairvoyance and precognition and premonition. 477 00:37:40,560 --> 00:37:43,760 I'm interested in expanding what we currently know, 478 00:37:43,760 --> 00:37:48,160 which almost by definition means you're challenging known theories, 479 00:37:48,160 --> 00:37:51,720 and people don't like their theories to be challenged, 480 00:37:51,720 --> 00:37:53,160 so...oh, well. 481 00:38:01,400 --> 00:38:06,599 If you've ever wondered if premonitions are more than ordinary anticipation, 482 00:38:06,599 --> 00:38:13,080 if jumping out of the way just before that tree fell down was more than coincidence, you are not alone. 483 00:38:14,919 --> 00:38:21,519 Dr Radin has designed an experiment that has made many mainstream scientists very upset indeed, 484 00:38:21,519 --> 00:38:27,680 because he believes it provides proof of precognition - the ability to look into the future. 485 00:38:29,960 --> 00:38:33,119 One of the implications of this for decision-making 486 00:38:33,119 --> 00:38:35,160 is that when we make a decision, 487 00:38:35,160 --> 00:38:39,639 we think of it in conventional terms is we're making the decision 488 00:38:39,639 --> 00:38:41,919 based on our memory and our expectations. 489 00:38:41,919 --> 00:38:46,719 It's all past stuff which is processed in the way that allows us to make the decision. 490 00:38:46,719 --> 00:38:50,599 What these experiments suggest is probably a lot of the decision-making 491 00:38:50,599 --> 00:38:54,399 is based on the past, but some of it is based on what is about to occur. 492 00:38:58,559 --> 00:39:04,359 Knowing the future when it comes to making a decision would be pretty handy for anybody, 493 00:39:04,359 --> 00:39:10,599 but there are professions where such a skill could mean the difference between life and death. 494 00:39:16,280 --> 00:39:19,959 These men are three of the best pilots in America. 495 00:39:19,959 --> 00:39:23,719 They are graduates of the US Navy's legendary Top Gun programme. 496 00:39:26,640 --> 00:39:30,919 Lts Snodgrass, Kamir and Appazzato 497 00:39:30,919 --> 00:39:35,320 were so good, they stayed on as instructors. 498 00:39:38,439 --> 00:39:45,319 What makes them so successful is their ability to make decisions and, more importantly, predictions 499 00:39:45,319 --> 00:39:49,479 upside down, being crushed by gravity, travelling at the speed of sound. 500 00:40:00,320 --> 00:40:04,119 It's a 3D dynamic environment and they're constantly changing over time 501 00:40:04,119 --> 00:40:07,360 so you have to be very quick with your thought process. 502 00:40:07,360 --> 00:40:11,719 You've got to take into account your own aircraft's energy, your altitude, attitude, 503 00:40:11,719 --> 00:40:15,239 how many knots you have in the jet, how fast you are going. 504 00:40:15,239 --> 00:40:19,559 You have got to take all that in relationship to your opponent or the threat. 505 00:40:23,199 --> 00:40:26,160 And it's all happening at three, four, five hundred knots. 506 00:40:26,160 --> 00:40:27,680 Check left. Left. 507 00:40:31,319 --> 00:40:35,039 There are a lot of things to consider in a dogfight. 508 00:40:42,840 --> 00:40:46,040 The Top Gun pilots are at the top of their tree, 509 00:40:46,040 --> 00:40:50,639 but even at this level some pilots are consistently better - 510 00:40:50,639 --> 00:40:54,159 better at anticipation and better in combat. 511 00:40:54,159 --> 00:40:57,720 It does make you wonder why some pilots are better able to 512 00:40:57,720 --> 00:41:01,839 grasp spatial concepts better than others but most people just chalk it up 513 00:41:01,839 --> 00:41:07,440 to better spatial orientation, a better ability to take concepts on board than other pilots. 514 00:41:10,719 --> 00:41:16,839 The unexplained aptitude of the few is difficult to clearly define 515 00:41:16,839 --> 00:41:20,720 but its effect is borne out by hard data. 516 00:41:20,720 --> 00:41:27,080 In every armed conflict since World War One, just 4% of fighter pilots 517 00:41:27,080 --> 00:41:31,239 have accounted for 40% of total kills. 518 00:41:42,759 --> 00:41:47,479 The military call this exceptional situational awareness, 519 00:41:47,479 --> 00:41:50,559 but it might be that some pilots are simply able 520 00:41:50,559 --> 00:41:57,560 to exploit the precognitive abilities that we, perhaps, might all possess. 521 00:41:57,560 --> 00:42:00,920 Some pilots have an innate ability to do this better than others. 522 00:42:00,920 --> 00:42:04,839 Whether you call that prediction or projection, I don't know what it is. 523 00:42:04,839 --> 00:42:07,679 I'd like to think it was training, but there are some pilots 524 00:42:07,679 --> 00:42:10,160 who are innately better fighter pilots than others. 525 00:42:18,519 --> 00:42:21,279 Turn...this. 526 00:42:21,279 --> 00:42:26,640 Dr Dean Radin is hoping that he can prove that what the pilots call prediction could in fact be 527 00:42:26,640 --> 00:42:32,120 precognition - a real ability to actually sense the future. 528 00:42:36,359 --> 00:42:41,400 His experiment records a person's emotional response to a series of pictures. 529 00:42:41,400 --> 00:42:45,439 The images are from an internationally approved clinical test 530 00:42:45,439 --> 00:42:50,160 for emotional response and are selected by the computer at random. 531 00:42:52,319 --> 00:42:55,679 Well, what we're expecting to see is that after a picture is seen, 532 00:42:55,679 --> 00:43:00,679 if it's an emotional picture, you'll get a large rise in skin conductance. 533 00:43:00,679 --> 00:43:06,039 And after a calm picture the person remains calm, it'll continue to go down. 534 00:43:06,039 --> 00:43:10,200 So far so good, and unremarkable. 535 00:43:10,200 --> 00:43:17,319 But what Dean is looking for is what happens BEFORE the randomly selected picture is shown. 536 00:43:17,319 --> 00:43:21,159 What we hope to see then is that before the emotional picture, 537 00:43:21,159 --> 00:43:23,600 skin conductance will already begin to go up 538 00:43:23,600 --> 00:43:26,640 and before the calm pictures, skin conductance will remain low. 539 00:43:29,920 --> 00:43:34,119 And if that occurs, then it shows that there is some 540 00:43:34,119 --> 00:43:38,520 aspect of us that is able to outguess what is otherwise a random process. 541 00:43:41,840 --> 00:43:48,200 If this happens, then Dean will have tangible evidence of an ability to sense the future. 542 00:43:49,640 --> 00:43:57,319 But for the experiment to carry any weight, the effect has to be observed consistently. 543 00:44:00,120 --> 00:44:03,399 Well, it if happens completely randomly, it's guessing. 544 00:44:03,399 --> 00:44:08,600 If it happens in such a way so that it is systematic then it suggests that it's not guessing, 545 00:44:08,600 --> 00:44:11,200 but it's actually some perception of the future. 546 00:44:13,680 --> 00:44:17,279 Dean's analysed the data from his experiments. 547 00:44:17,279 --> 00:44:23,280 This is the sector, the period before the picture appeared, and as you see, 548 00:44:23,280 --> 00:44:27,399 in both cases anticipation of what you are about to see. 549 00:44:29,000 --> 00:44:33,439 They show that for three or more seconds before an image is shown, 550 00:44:33,439 --> 00:44:41,319 skin conductance does change consistently in anticipation of that future image. 551 00:44:41,319 --> 00:44:45,799 Incredibly, the blue graph shows that before a calm picture, 552 00:44:45,799 --> 00:44:48,160 the anticipation is calm, 553 00:44:48,160 --> 00:44:51,279 but before an emotional picture is shown, 554 00:44:51,279 --> 00:44:55,600 the red trace shows that the anticipation is emotional too. 555 00:44:58,399 --> 00:45:00,839 How can it possibly be that there's a difference 556 00:45:00,839 --> 00:45:06,039 in your anticipation for one thing that you haven't seen as opposed to another thing that you haven't seen? 557 00:45:06,039 --> 00:45:09,479 Well, that's the question. We know that the laws 558 00:45:09,479 --> 00:45:14,520 of classical mechanics and quantum mechanics are time symmetric, which means that there is... 559 00:45:14,520 --> 00:45:19,679 The direction of time for elementary particles 560 00:45:19,679 --> 00:45:24,399 So you can then ask the question, what would happen in the case of consciousness? 561 00:45:24,399 --> 00:45:27,720 Since we don't really understand consciousness very well, 562 00:45:27,720 --> 00:45:32,640 could it reach into this domain where time symmetry rules, which is fundamental physics? 563 00:45:32,640 --> 00:45:35,800 So here's a moment of a stimulus occurring. 564 00:45:35,800 --> 00:45:39,679 The time symmetry would predict that whatever is occurring to the right 565 00:45:39,679 --> 00:45:42,880 side should be symmetric to some extent on the left. 566 00:45:49,759 --> 00:45:53,799 If time symmetry really does affect our experience of reality, 567 00:45:53,799 --> 00:45:59,160 then Dean might have provided an explanation for exceptional pilots. 568 00:45:59,160 --> 00:46:03,239 Though not everyone is happy with the idea. 569 00:46:05,159 --> 00:46:07,199 As an aviator, I can't predict the future. 570 00:46:07,199 --> 00:46:13,200 I can't know with 100% certainty where his aircraft is going to be, but based on my ability 571 00:46:13,200 --> 00:46:18,800 to understand orientation of objects in three dimensions and my ability and the training I've received, 572 00:46:18,800 --> 00:46:23,360 I can get a good idea - project three to five seconds down the road 573 00:46:23,360 --> 00:46:25,520 where his aircraft is going to be. 574 00:46:27,960 --> 00:46:31,359 You can make an educated projection or prediction about what is 575 00:46:31,359 --> 00:46:34,439 happening in a few seconds but you can never know with 100% certainty. 576 00:46:40,999 --> 00:46:46,599 We have access to our future, at least to the near-term future, and by having access 577 00:46:46,599 --> 00:46:51,840 I mean that we are getting information from our future and it influences our present. 578 00:46:56,480 --> 00:47:00,080 You're driving along the highway and if you get a bad feeling, 579 00:47:00,080 --> 00:47:03,480 you probably ought to pay attention to it cos maybe the bad feeling 580 00:47:03,480 --> 00:47:06,000 is relating to an event which is about to occur. 581 00:47:06,000 --> 00:47:09,560 And if you make the wrong decision on the highway you could end up dead. 582 00:47:18,800 --> 00:47:24,760 If you really are trying to make better decisions, then our final advice is this. 583 00:47:26,960 --> 00:47:31,520 Be aware of your potential for manipulation. 584 00:47:33,159 --> 00:47:38,480 Realise that you post-rationalise your inconvenient bad decisions. 585 00:47:38,480 --> 00:47:42,279 And finally, recognise that whatever intuition is, 586 00:47:42,279 --> 00:47:50,199 it shouldn't be ignored, because it might just give you the edge. 587 00:47:50,199 --> 00:47:54,200 If you'd like even more information about how to make better decisions 588 00:47:54,200 --> 00:47:58,640 or would like to download this week's video podcast, 589 00:47:58,640 --> 00:48:02,199 visit our website - 590 00:48:02,199 --> 00:48:06,080 Now it's time for you to make a decision - 591 00:48:06,080 --> 00:48:09,760 what are you going to watch next? Good luck. 592 00:48:15,839 --> 00:48:18,200 Subtitles by Red Bee Media Ltd 593 00:48:18,200 --> 00:48:21,799 E-mail: subtitling@bbc.co.uk